Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 76402.907016 80708.038589 85016.430397 89648.526828 94484.685687 99381.825390 104712.458681
2026-01-04 69808.100497 76398.305790 83180.219194 90671.555378 98704.956502 107051.454255 116369.221361
2026-01-11 64899.720541 73051.613883 81627.620137 91302.955512 101895.074211 113118.441736 125889.808609
2026-01-18 60787.515640 70071.063736 80020.687765 91445.525737 104168.828054 117869.735393 133705.245109
2026-01-25 57473.038176 67652.304613 78740.865490 91670.349354 106283.599034 122238.866481 140926.356916
2026-02-01 54457.399972 65338.288789 77367.626160 91589.604573 107877.983399 125882.798800 147220.282222
2026-02-08 52308.766705 63857.681173 76797.407119 92287.356507 110239.263680 130301.604619 154326.143921
2026-02-15 49975.318255 62025.271010 75698.949366 92261.155066 111670.528572 133585.127302 160083.137753
2026-02-22 48622.187134 61257.658331 75761.522533 93516.324470 114531.807994 138477.718419 167682.052572
2026-03-01 47164.230741 60284.069656 75510.871187 94340.032028 116839.338171 142698.685642 174493.437817
2026-03-08 45346.361476 58793.270365 74570.293416 94274.439375 118038.345945 145582.119949 179715.378294
2026-03-15 43871.682411 57655.689324 73995.330855 94593.655859 119652.544024 148926.531391 185470.430680
2026-03-22 43054.487666 57308.857092 74370.465510 96068.203426 122679.510629 153995.405089 193354.706750
2026-03-29 42068.918290 56711.196487 74405.925001 97104.089704 125165.042386 158424.327634 200504.195896
2026-04-05 40964.369788 55918.113069 74160.804808 97761.231038 127165.873272 162262.074216 206953.043407
2026-04-12 39686.874163 54856.444294 73537.560082 97909.586080 128510.594252 165287.159309 212415.461818
2026-04-19 38526.198945 53902.819577 73012.393295 98146.758946 129939.631416 168401.532469 217988.701054
2026-04-26 37284.692213 52801.208822 72260.322914 98061.262005 130936.906191 170967.828936 222885.302243
2026-05-03 36474.347565 52236.900449 72171.156763 98798.963886 132957.054586 174797.756567 229357.713685
2026-05-10 35375.979847 51254.126383 71508.766966 98771.255932 133984.688284 177380.510945 234281.498357
2026-05-17 34904.514568 51092.841922 71901.495346 100098.200488 136738.897566 182134.264819 241944.933935
2026-05-24 34268.731325 50686.843932 71954.556083 100968.913089 138901.734132 186149.128142 248701.189838
2026-05-31 33282.781281 49773.122745 71309.257950 100899.580104 139832.492191 188596.644954 253482.834538